Monday, November 26, 2007

Free Money

Folks,

The best trade I made all this year involves CFC. A few months ago they announced a $2B loan from BAC--the stock popped almost 15% the next day...and I shorted the hell out of it and quadrupled my money. That day the stock actually finished down around 10%. It was a gimme. An opportunity..... why? No one borrows money from people at a ridiculous interest rate unless they are in trouble, big trouble.

Fast forward--tonight--Citigroup announced they borrowed $7.5B from Middle East investors--no big deal, except the rate was at 11%!!!!!!! This is not good for one of America's largest banks. Citigroup knows banking, and money, and um, loans....no one borrows at 11% if they can go elsewhere to get the money for less. Uh-oh.



http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINSP7190720071127?rpc=44

History repeats itself. Don't believe me--look at the end of the day chart for C. It popped huge..someone leaked the news. The official news came later tonight. (Dow futures went up as well).



Tomorrow morning expect a huge pop in C. Short the hell out of it....buy puts....do something, but don't get caught in the mindset that this is a deal on the long side. If you want to be safe, buy your puts out a month or two. If you are crazy, but OTM Puts for December. Going long is suicidal though....unless you plan to hold until either A) Citicorp is split or B) plan to sell 5 years from now.



Worst case, the stock does nothing or takes a few days to slide. Either way you win.

I didn't get any $50 bills from anyone in the mail for the Goldman short--which was sorta fair, because my reasons were off, but the effect was the same. You could have made a fortune with that chart that week. Anyhow, send me 25 $2 bills if you profit off this Rocketstocks tip (Euros would be better at this point)




(For the record, I own puts in C already)











-Rocketshoe

Monday, November 12, 2007

12 flights for free!

Here is a quick way to get 12 free flights on Southwest.

This deal was borrowed from Flyertalk.com but summarized for your enjoyment.

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/showthread.php?t=747057

1. First, apply for the American Express Business Gold rewards card, first year free, with 25,000 bonus points.

(https://www201.americanexpress.com/sbsapply/EACQServlet?request_type=applyNow&bos=b&eep=20145&ct=24&lpid=263&&openria=0)

2. Then send your American Express points to Continental via their web site. Their 25,000 bonus points become 25,000 Continental miles.

(Create an account onlinehttp://www.continental.com/web/en-US/content/onepass/default.aspx)

3. Then call Continental OnePass service center(713.952.1630) and transfer your Continental miles into 25,000 Amtrak Guest Reward points. (Create an account online http://www.amtrakguestrewards.com/) (This transfer appears to take place on Monday morning).

4. Now transfer your Amtrak Guest Rewards to Choice(http://www.amtrakguestrewards.com/index.cfm?loc=rewards_selection.cfm&category=redeem&rewards=Hotels) at a 5 to 1 ratio. Your 25,000 Amtrak become 125,000 Choice hotel points. You can do this step online. (Create this account online here:

http://www.choicehotels.com/ires/en-US/html/FrequencyPrograms?promo=gch031&kw=gnch031&s_semid=%7Bifcontent:ContentNetwork%7D%7Bifsearch:%7Bkeyword%7D%7D%7C%7Bcreative%7D)

Finally, redeem your Choice points for Southwest points at a rate of 2 southwest points per 5000 choice points.(http://www.choicehotels.com/ires/en-US/html/GPAirlineRewards?sid=zISWg.4jtGdg$y7g.3)

Now you have 50 rapid reward points. You can do this step online off the main page for Choice Rewards Account. Amtrak only lets you transfer 25,000 points a year so you have to wait until January for the next step.

In January, apply for a Continental credit card (http://www.continental.com/web/en-US/content/onepass/earn/creditcard.aspx) and a Southwest Visa (16 RR points). After transferring your Continental points through the method above you will have another 40 Rapid Reward points. Combine this with 16 points from your Southwest Credit Card(http://www.firstusa.com/cgi-bin/webcgi/webserve.cgi?partner_dir_name=southwest_airlines_fly_e16&page=cont&mkid=6V8Rd)and you have a total of 106 Southwest Rapid Rewards points.

That is enough for almost 7 free flights - the bonus is Southwest has a deal where if you have 100 points coming in to your account in 12 months you get a free companion pass. So for all of your free 6 flights, you can take someone with you. Is this is a lot of work? Yes. Is it a little insane? Again, yes. But 12 flights from anywhere to anywhere Southwest flies is probably worth about $400 a flight or $4800. This scheme will probably take a couple hours of work to do so the value per hour seems worthwhile to me. You can also reduce the time and effort in this scheme by just buying, borrowing or earning Amex points.

For example, you can buy Amex points for $0.025/point so $200 will give you enough points for two free flights on Southwest. Or if you already have some Continental miles you can skip some of the steps above. Regardless, as a Rocket Stock Blog reader remember this – 12 free flights or $5 grand get you that much closer to retirement and that much closer to getting the man off your back.

-WageSlave

Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Juicy, Juicy, Juicy Rumor

Folks,

We had our 25 bps cut today from the Fed and we did get our rally. I believe the party is over though. This week will be good and next week we will get a sh!tbomb dropped (something bad from the banks) on the Market which will take the Market back down. I'm short CFC (I predict CFC to be around $5 soon) now and long ACH (China is unstoppable). These are just my predictions...but onto your regularly scheduled program...

There are a lot of bad rumors floating around about Goldman Sachs (GS). These guys are the best when it comes to investing and you find alumni from their firm in almost every important position having to do with banking and the economy.

Well, the rumor is that they are going to be investigated by the SEC. They seemed to have made some very 'lucky' trades. While other firms were down with their earnings, GS was up nearly 90% in earnings. While this is not illegal, its fishy.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/10312007/business/sec_eyes_goldman_sachs_good_fo.htm

Also, a rumor is abound about GS releasing news that they are writing off a significant number of losses in the near future. (no link---just wait)

If any of this is true. Goldman will take it like a rented mule...did I mention some of their senior staff just sold a few shares....

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB119377844588876701.html?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

Again, these are rumors, but a few puts against Goldman ain't that much and could pay off HUGE. I expect each of you to mail me one fifty dollar bill (with a small face) if you make any money off this.

(at the time of this article, I own puts in Goldman Sachs)


-Rocketshoe

Monday, October 29, 2007

My Predictions

- A recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose your job.

Harry S. Truman, in the Observer, April 13, 1958


- A recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose your job. A recovery is when Jimmy Carter loses his.
Ronald Reagan, during the Presidential Race of 1980

- A recession is a time for the economy to heal from greed and equity bubbles. Fighting and hiding the process leads to a depression. A recovery occurs when the Fed wakes the F up and stops pandering to Wall Street.
- Rocketshoe

Folks, its coming… It looks like 2008 will be the beginning of a recession for the American economy. A lot of folks refuse to acknowledge this, but its knocking on our door. This is not an entirely bad thing—recessions are an opportunity for a return to normalcy, just a part of the business cycle (read more at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_cycle ). If you prepare yourself and your portfolio appropriately, you can protect your investments and even profit from a downturn in the US economy.

A lot of people will not discuss or even admit we will be entering a Recession soon (you know who you are). It has been some time since our economy has been in a recession (generally accepted as two straight quarter of declining GDP). After the great market run-up of the dot com boom/bust , interest rates were cut dramatically which lead to another bubble—the Housing Boom of the last couple of years. Both of these instances were bubbles based on greed, speculation, and virtual valuations of both company profits and property. A recession allows the economy to re-price these investments and assets appropriately to maintain an efficient market where values are in-line with historical norms. Not only are valuations appropriate, but risk is re-priced as well (an ideal market is where one sees greater returns for taking on greater risk).


There are a significant number of indicators and factors that lead me to believe we are entering a recession:

1. The housing market is crashing, hard. Predatory lending coupled with lax lending regulations has lead to folks taking loans on homes that they cannot afford—subprime loans are resetting in force next year-some folks will have their mortgage rates double. Couple this with an increase in supply of newly-built homes, a tightening of who can get loans in the credit market (see: US Economy, circa 3rd quarter, 2007), and home prices WAY above historical norms and growth rates, will lead to the housing bubble popping. An entire part of our economy is built on housing now—mortgage brokers, home improvements, builders, all kinds of retail and labor to support the business. If you don't believe me, listen to any of the 3rd quarter home builder conference calls where they said they have never seen a downturn this bad, or no recovery in the foreseeable future. This is not the end but the first domino to start everything.


2. People will be spending a lot less money on retail, namely ipods, cars, and granite counter tops. ~70% of our economy and GDP is driven by consumer spending. The last few years have been a feeding frenzy for retail goods for folks who refinanced their homes to pull out cash to take advantage of the increased value of their homes. People bought cars, home improvements, vacations, etc. When that mortgage doubles, or folks can’t finance their lifestyles by continuing to flip houses, the party is over and spending will drop significantly. Reduced retail spending will directly hurt our economy.


3. The banks have been bad. Very bad. Enron bad. Investment houses, banks, and hedge funds have been playing games with how they represent debt on their books. Most of this has to do with home loans that were wrapped up into bonds and used as leveraging for borrowing money from each other and the Fed. At one point the liquidity in the market about halted (Think of banks loaning money to each other as a way of putting money in the cash register to make change and do business). Very bad—the Fed stepped in and dumped cheap money into the economy and waived some of the rules regarding how much money banks are required to keep as reserves during normal operations. This should scare the shit out of everyone, because some of these rules went into place after the Great Depression to prevent bank collapses. As these shit bombs are slowly revealed and written off, banks take a hit, and peoples’ investments disappear. It is hard to properly value assets and the stocks of companies, if these bad numbers are not on public books for people to evaluate and price properly. Banks can collapse. You are only insured up to $100k wit the FDIC. See an earlier post about where to stash your money. Some folks say, ‘A major bank will never collapse’. You can’t know with the current shenanigans going on, so why chance it? In conclusion, banks are the blood of our economy, and when they start to bleed out, our economy will suffocate.


4. Earnings are down across the board for American public companies. Most are showing a loss stateside but growing profits overseas. See CAT, and UPS for example. The third quarter was rough for the S&P, besides Tech (which is another discussion entirely), everyone is down—which is a direct indicator of a slowing economy.

5. Inflation is rearing its ugly head. With the recent Fed cuts (and the Fed thinks that rate cuts will improve liquidity and save the economy in the short term), the dollar has dropped like a rock (check out the $ index at: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX , This chart measures a weighted value of the US dollar against six currencies: the Euro, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, Swedish krona and Swiss franc on a 100 basis. i.e. a value of 90 means a 10% drop in the value of the dollar across the board). Inflation is another beast that will kill consumer spending. Not only will consumer spending be hit, but we run a case of capitol flight risk since foreigners don’t want to buy our debt if the value of their investment is dropping. Then we are screwed when we have to pay our own debt. Higher taxes for everyone!


6. The SEC is on vacation. These guys are supposed to be the cops of the Market. Lately, there have been a lot of shenanigans that have not been investigated—all the false reports of Warren Buffet taking stakes in companies that have hit the news wires, Countrywide not releasing details of funding sources, and my favorite: the front running of the last Fed Rate cut--I got a chart here somewhere I'll post of a stock popping minutes before the announced rate cut. If someone leaked the news from the Fed to ANYONE who profited on the news, they need to go to jail. This kind of horseshit hurts the market in the long term, even if the SEC is on vacation to prevent market volatility in the short run. How can people invest and trust a market that does these things?

Those are a few of the major things I believe that will lead us to a recession. At least I hope we have a recession—this will give us a chance to clean up the mess over the last ten years and get to point where we have a fairly priced market.

Now, how do we profit from the upcoming recession? Many ways are available- investing in secular dividend stocks, foreign stocks (the rest of the world is doing a bit better and not necessarily coupled to our growth) , playing the volatility (the upcoming rate this week is a freebie), shorting stocks that miss their earnings, and playing in the bond market. Stay tuned and be careful.

-Rocketshoe

Sunday, October 28, 2007

Busy, Busy, Busy

Folks,

My apologies, we have been out of the loop. The 'paid' jobs have been calling. I plan to be more loyal to our regular readers (Both of you know who you are). Ha! As well, I have been trying to wrap my brain around the Market since the rate cut a few weeks ago. Wow. It did not go like I expected, and by expected, I mean what would be healthy for our Economy. Which leads to a short summary to a long ranting post--The Market is not fair. People do not play by the rules, and most behavior is not necessarily in the best interest of our Nation's future. Anyway...I digress...


I think I have the hang of it now. Every now and then we lose our heads. Mine rolled farther away than usual.


Short Term Strategy:


Rate cut this week. 0.25-0.50 rate cut. Go long into the cut with tight stops. I plan to take calls on a certain mortgage broker who announced bullsh!t earning last week, a favorite Chinese stock of mine, and a brokerage House. After the pop and rush back to 14k plus on the Dow, I'm shorting the hell out of the same companies into the year's end (except for the Chinese one, because that market is following the Chang'e 1 to the moon and won't stop until after the '08 Olympics).


Long Term Strategy:

Put your money into very conservative/wealth preserving plays. This means bonds, dividend paying secular stocks, and high interest instruments such as CD's/savings accounts. (No, real estate is still off limits until '09--at least). The Market is headed for Recession. Stay tuned for a post about my evaluation of the health of the upcoming Market for the next year and why the Market plans to poop the bed while eating crackers.

Note: I am not responsible if you lose money because my strategies were wrong or I changed my mind at the last minute and still made money. Be careful and take on only as much risk as you can afford--if you lose all your money, you can blame me, but I really don't care. Nope, not even a little.


-Rocketshoe

Fly Free for Life!

One of the principles I want to explore in this post is figuring out creative ways to reduce expenses.

Reducing expenses without diminishing your lifestyle is a great way to increase your overall quality of life because it will lead to working less. Last year, during the peak travel months of the year (September through February) I spent almost $2000 on flights. This year I intend to do roughly the same number of flights but not spend any money.

This is possible by taking advantage of frequent flyer programs.

In this article I will go over a ways to maximize your benefit from frequent flyer programs.

1. Always earn miles when you travel for business. For business trips, it is important to have a preferred carrier. Even if you cannot fly your preferred carrier you can often use the miles you earn on your preferred carrier. For instance, Delta and Northwest miles can easily be credited onto Continental at check in time.

2. Take advantage of frequent flyer bonuses. For instance, last year, 3 flights between Thanksgiving and Christmas earned a free flight on American and United. Even if you only fly two for business, by sneaking in a quick short haul flight (like LAX to SFO) you can get a free flight anywhere in the country.

Flyertalk (http://www.flyertalk.com/) is a good resource for this. Make sure you check the airline specific forum for bonuses on every business flight you book.

For example, by reading the forums you would discover this link which gives you 8 rapid rewards points for free by creating a new rapid rewards account.(https://www.southwest.com/rrenroll/sfo/)

3. Credit card bonuses are an easy way to earn free flights, although they do take time. Both United, American, and Southwest, among others, earn you a free flight by just applying and being approved for their credit cards. In addition, you can have both a business and personal account to double up on the bonuses. Apply for a Mastercard, Visa & Amex to further increase your bonuses.

Follow the links below for a quick few free flights.

United personal (25,000 miles)http://www.firstusa.com/cgi-bin/webcgi/webserve.cgi?partner_dir_name=united_signature_25k_afw&page=cont&mkid=6VMTb.

United business (25,000 miles)http://www.firstusa.com/cgi-bin/webcgi/webserve.cgi?partner_dir_name=united_bizcard_25k_afw&page=cont&mkid=6VMTc.

Southwest personal (16 RR=1 flight)http://www.firstusa.com/cgi-bin/webcgi/webserve.cgi?partner_dir_name=southwest_airlines_fly_e16&page=cont&mkid=6V8Rd.

Southwest business (16 RR=1 flight)http://www.firstusa.com/cgi-bin/webcgi/webserve.cgi?partner_dir_name=southwest_airlines_bizcard_fly_e16&page=cont&mkid=6V8Re.

Citibank American (25,000 miles for each of Platinum Mastercard, Mastercard and Amex)http://citi.bridgetrack.com/USC/07/AA/multi/Oct/Lead/25KBM/default.htm?promoCode=away6&app=UNSOL&sc=4XNBPBM7&m=X6FPZYYW74W&langId=EN&siteId=CB&B=A&BTData=C02117E726E617F59524341B7A5A4A9A5959D9B83FDF8FEE3FACBCCF14E173&BT_TRF=336651&ProspectID=9778D563BC19492C9A39C639665FD6C24.

4. Use American Express membership rewards to top off accounts. You can get a quick 25,000 reward points by applying for a business gold card and you earn points with purchases. These points are transferable to a variety of airlines such as Continental, Southwest and others. The transfers take effect almost instantly and allow you to quickly the extra 1000 miles into your account to make the Continental account you have with 24,000 miles good for a free flight.

5. Use transfer partners. A little known fact is most airline miles are transferable between each other. Webflyer (http://www.webflyer.com/) keeps a list of a variety of transfer opportunities--for instance you can transfer 10,000 Continental miles into 10,000 Midway Airline miles by funneling your miles through Amtrak. Often however, your miles do get devalued during transfer.

By using these strategies you can easily and on a recurring basis book free flights. There are always new offers and new promotions to take advantage of. Over time, this will save you thousands of dollars, which, over a lifetime and with some interest, can easily become a lot of money.

-Wageslave

A little bit of comedy

THIS APPEARED ON CRAIG'S LIST IN NEW YORK:

What am I doing wrong?

Okay, I'm tired of beating around the bush. I'm a beautiful (spectacularly beautiful) 25 year old girl. I'm articulate and classy. I'm not from New York. I'm looking to get married to a guy who makes at least half a million a year.

I know how that sounds, but keep in mind that a million a year is middle class in New York City, so I don't think I'm overreaching at all. Are there any guys who make 500K or more on this board? Any wives? Could you send me some tips? I dated a business man who makes average around 200-250. But that's where I seem to hit a roadblock.

250,000 won't get me to central park west. I know a woman in my yoga class who was married to an investment banker and lives in Tribeca, and she's not as pretty as I am, nor is she a great genius. So what is she doing right? How do I get to her level?

Here are my questions specifically:

- Where do you single rich men hang out? Give me specifics- bars, restaurants, gyms

-What are you looking for in a mate? Be honest guys, you won't hurt my feelings-Is there an age range I should be targeting (I'm 25)?

- Why are some of the women living lavish lifestyles on the upper east side so plain? I've seen really 'plain jane' boring types who have nothing to offer married to incredibly wealthy guys. I've seen drop dead gorgeous girls in singles bars in the east village. What's the story there?

- Jobs I should look out for? Everyone knows - lawyer, investment banker, doctor. How much do those guys really make? And where do they hang out? Where do the hedge fund guys hang out?

- How you decide marriage vs. just a girlfriend? I am looking for MARRIAGE ONLY! Please hold your insults - I'm putting myself out there in an honest way. Most beautiful women are superficial; at least I'm being up front about it. I wouldn't be searching for these kind of guys if I wasn't able to match them - in looks, culture, sophistication, and keeping a nice home and hearth.

* It’s NOT ok to contact this poster with services or other commercial interests Posting ID: 432279810

THE ANSWER

Dear Pers-431649184:

I read your posting with great interest and have thought meaningfully about your dilemma.

I offer the following analysis of your predicament.

Firstly, I'm not wasting your time; I qualify as a guy who fits your bill; that is I make more than $500K per year. That said here's how I see it. Your offer, from the perspective of a guy like me, is plain and simple a crappy business deal.

Here's why: cutting through all the B.S., what you suggest is a simple trade: you bring your looks to the party and I bring my money. Fine, simple. But here's the rub, your looks will fade and my money will likely continue into perpetuity...in fact, it is very likely that my income increases but it is an absolute certainty that you won't be getting any more beautiful!

So, in economic terms you are a depreciating asset and I am an earning asset. Not only are you a depreciating asset, your depreciation accelerates! Let me explain: you're 25 now and will likely stay pretty hot for the next 5 years, but less so each year. Then the fade begins in earnest. By 35, stick a fork in you!

So in Wall Street terms, we would call you a trading position, not a buy and hold...hence the rub...marriage. It doesn't make good business sense to "buy you" (which is what you're asking) so I'd rather lease. In case you think I'm being cruel, I would say the following. If my money were to go away, so would you, so when your beauty fades I need an out. It's as simple as that.

So a deal that makes sense is dating, not marriage. Separately, I was taught early in my career about efficient markets. So, I wonder why a girl as "articulate, classy and spectacularly beautiful" as you has been unable to find your sugar daddy. I find it hard to believe that if you are as gorgeous as you say you are that the $500K hasn't found you, if not only for a tryout. By the way, you could always find a way to make your own money and then we wouldn't need to have this difficult conversation.With all that said, I must say you're going about it the right way.

Classic "pump and dump." I hope this is helpful, and if you want to enter into some sort of lease, let me know.


Ha!

-Rocketshoe

Sunday, September 30, 2007

Put that extra money to work!

Checking accounts are a great financial instrument to have. They allow you to store and access your money safely without worry. The only drawback to the checking account is the very low rate of interest. Traditionally, checking accounts offer a very poor annual interest rate--Often about 0.5%. For most folks this is not an issue, they spend their cash in their accounts paycheck to paycheck and do not have extra money at the end of the month. Of course, knowing my audience, that is not true (hopefully)!

If you find your checking account to have more money than you need for bills and expenses every month and growing, there is a simple solution you may have overlooked to put that money to better use. The first solution would be to increase the contributions to your 401(k), Roth, and/or other investments. If you need more liquidity-i.e. access, you can always dump that extra cash in a high-yield savings account.

Returns on high-yield savings account can be as high as 6%--12 times the average you are receiving in your checking account. A little quick math for you to drive home the point on the higher interest rate: With $10k sitting in your checking account vs. a saving account at the rates stated earlier, you are looking at an annual difference of $550. Hardly worth passing up on! Go to http://www.money-rates.com/savings.htm for a summary of current rates being offered with banks.

Keep an eye on the interest rate to guarantee you are making the most interest on your money. These rates can be introductory rates (~3-6 months) or adjustable rates at either internet banks or regional brick and mortar banks. Some even offer free on-line checking, ATM cards, and free bank to bank transfers. ING Direct will allow you to set up monthly contributions—key to running a tight budget and still being able to save money. I urge you to do your research on what is appropriate to your needs.

I use HSBC—not the tops on the interest rate currently (they had the best a year ago), but reliable and easily accessed through the internet. I have also worked with ING Direct and had a positive experience as well.

I use these high-interest savings accounts to store my emergency funds (that 3-6 months of savings needed in case I lose my job). I will also store money I may be saving for an upcoming expensive purchase. Not only do I receive the advantage of high interest, the transfer of the money can take up to three business days—a great barrier to impulse spending. By moving that money out of my checking account, I’m not tempted to break my budget as well.

One thing to note—always bank with a FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) Insured bank! Most banks will have the FDIC logo on their homepage .
You can always look up a banking institution on the FDIC web site as well to learn more about the bank in question (www.fdic.gov).

The FDIC is a Federal institution that guarantees balances up to $100,000. That’s right, if the bank folds, you get your money back. Needless to say, if you have over $100k in an account, you should probably diversify into other holding or at least open another account somewhere else. Rarely does a bank fold, but one did fold recently, http://www.netbank.com/ . Nothing to worry about if you are within the FDIC limits, but something to be aware of regardless.

High interest savings accounts are a valuable financial tool to increase interest on cash you cannot invest or need for short –term purchases or emergencies. As long as the bank is FDIC insured, and you are comfortable with the services provided, the high interest savings account is a useful tool to put your money to work for you.

-Rocketshoe

Monday, September 24, 2007

The Sad and Depressed Dollar

Every day it seems the dollar hits a new record low against foreign currencies (Just last week we paired with the Canadian Dollar, the Looney!-hasn't happened in over 30 years). Obviously this cannot continue forever, and is not good for the US consumer, but as an investor it is something we can take advantage of.

Let’s talk about why the dollar is worth what it is. There are many theories of currency valuation; two that I find interesting are purchasing power parityand asset market model.

Purchasing power parity is the idea that a currency is worth what it is based on what it will buy. For example, by using the Chinese currency, in China, you can pretty easily buy a meal for eight remembi or about a dollar. In California, the same meal might cost you eight dollars and that difference means that if you go to China to get a meal you only have to pay a dollar. I definitely think this is part of the difference between currencies, but I don’t think it accounts for the entire difference, and most importantly, I don’t think it explains very well why the valuation ratios change. The asset market model is pretty good for that.

The basic idea is convert your dollar into a US treasury short term bond, currently yielding about 4.75 percent. Then convert your neighbor’s pound into a British short term treasury note yielding about 5.25 percent. Which one would you rather have? I’d rather have the pound, and would sell my dollars to buy pounds. If everyone thought the same way the it wouldn’t be so good for dollars – which is the situation we are in right now. Given that piece of the puzzle let’s back off and consider the very long term view. There is no fundamental reason why purchasing power parity means that the US should have a currency advantage with other countries. This advantage only exists because of our position in the world and that people, thus far, have more trust in the transparency and robustness of American capitalism than other countries, such as Communist China. So why don’t we raise our interest rates and make our currency more valuable?

The simple answer is, we are approaching an election year and the powers that be want to avoid a recession before the election. In most of the country housing prices are declining rapidly (http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/prnewswire/NYTU06528082007-1.htm), mostly because they ran up so quickly.

The Federal Reserve had a choice of whether to allow this decline to become more evident, or to mask it by simply making the dollar less valuable. The decline still happens, but part of it occurs because of your purchasing power parity with the rest of the world declines. This will show up in inflation, but not as much as you’d think. Our trade deficit, at $838 billion last year (2006), is still small compared to $13.13 trillion GDP in 2006. This will mostly show up as your ability to purchase things outside the US, whether as a touristor, or an investor, will decline. The obvious thing to buy is foreign equities.

If you look at foreign stock markets, particularly emerging markets, they have done really well in the last few years. (http://money.cnn.com/quote/mutualfund/mutualfund.html?symb=PRMSX) . This would make one suspect that maybe the transparency and robustness of Chinese Capitalism (I mean Communism) is getting close to that of the US. But we know that’s not true.

So here is my suggestion:

The US isn’t the only country with a subprime mortgage mess – but it is the first to deal with it – and the fact it is more visible in the US is because of the transparency of our financial system.

Therefore, the current devaluation of the dollar won’t continue forever, but will until other countries deal with their mortgage issues. As evidence of this I’ll pull acouple data points.

First, search the internet for housing bubble in any other country.

I’ll pick Canada(1.9 million links -http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&hs=9c1&q=housing+bubble+canada&btnG=Search)

or Spain (1.6 million links -http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&hs=XJM&q=housing+bubble+spanish&btnG=Search)–

both numbers almost as high as the US housing bubble

(2.2 million links -http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&hs=Lxg&q=housing+bubble+US&btnG=Search), but for much smaller countries!

In the longer run, the shit is going to hit the fan all over the world – just take the recent bank run in the UK as an example:

(http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bankingFinancial&storyID=2007-09-24T070126Z_01_L23582276_RTRIDST_0_SP_PAGE_012-L23582276-OISBN.XML).

This will probably cause each of these other countries to lower their short term interest rates for similar political reasons. As the world deals with its housing and credit issues, the ability of world banks to deal with inflationary pressures will be reduced and the cost of basic materials will go up.

So, if you buy into my thoughts, I’ll suggest a couple things:

1. In the near term buy equities in any foreign market. Riskier markets are better because of beta, a concept we will discuss later.

2. In the near term, but for the long term, buy basic materials or equities that own basic materials. (Southern Copper with their 6% dividend is my favorite right now).

3. In the medium term, as every country you might invest in will have a bank run or two – stop investing in them as questions arise as to the strength of their financial systems.

4. At that point (maybe 6 months to a year away), increase your position in US equities, as the fact US financial markets have already gone through the turmoil associated with declining asset prices will make US assets relatively more valuable.

This strategy I offer as an opportunity to play off my thesis presented above. The US market is declining and it will take asymmetric strategies to profit in the turbulence we will face ahead. Why is Housing bombing? That's another article to stay tuned for. As always, I want to hear your take and suggestions to my strategy.

-Wageslave

How to get out of credit card debt

Many of us graduated college owing a bunch of money to someone. Or our first job didn’t pay us that much and we racked up some debt. Or we just didn’t pay attention to our finances because we didn’t think it would matter – and who expected to live past their mid twenties?!?

Whatever the reason, there is a way out. Actually there are many of them. I’m going to outline one today I have a lot of personal experience with. My family never understood student loans – we were a credit card family. And so through college, instead of doing the smart thing of accumulating a modest sum of student loans I could pay off over a decade or two I accumulated credit card debt. After I graduated, I didn’t really think about it much and, for the most part, the interest rates were low. Then I got hit with something called universal default. Chase changed the due date of one of my cards and I paid it late. This caused my interest rate on all of my Chase cards – where the vast majority of my debt was, to skyrocket for three or four percent to 29.99 percent (usary). That was rough.

In hindsight, the correct thing to do was to call Chase up and ask them to retain the original interest rate by closing the card for new purchases. Unfortunately, I didn’t even know that was an option. In fact, when you are in any situation where a credit card company changes the terms and conditions, you can reject these changes and the worst they can do is stop accepting new purchases from you.

So I discovered another way out through four steps:

1. Fix my credit. After Chase changed my interest rate, they cut my credit lines to just a few hundred over the current balances. This caused my utilization to skyrocket. There are two factors that appear to have great influence on your credit score (Your credit score is a grade given to you by credit agencies based on your credit history to determine how much of a credit risk you are--basically, what are your chances of paying back the money you are borrowing. The higher the credit score, the more money and at a lower interest rate will be offered to you). These are keeping your individual card utilization under 90% and keeping your overall utilization under 50%. Since my credit score was low, it was difficult for me to get a new major bank credit. Fortunately, the department stores, particularly furniture stores, don’t really care. So I applied for a few accounts at Home Depot and Thomasville furniture that reduced my overall utilization below 50%. At the same time, I paid down all of my cards with a high utilization down to below 90%.

a. Another way to go, that I did not take advantage of, was using authorized users. By having a trusted friend put you down as an authorized user on their credit card, their available credit shows up on your credit report (Note: if you miss payments, the authorized user's credit score will suffer as well). This is a quick way to increase your available credit, although the rumor is it will go away when the FICO model changes early next year.

b. If you have business income, you can also take advantage of the fact business credit cards do not report on personal credit reports. Therefore if you have a few good business lines of credit, you can use them to hide your personal debt and therefore make you more attractive for new credit.

c. One final thing you can do for a small boost is “bumpage.” The major credit bureaus only store a certain amount of information in your credit file. By repeatedly accessing your credit history daily, you can actually “bump” off old information, particularly old credit inquires. This does not result in a huge increase in your credit score – each inquiry only subtracts a few points – but nonetheless it may be useful in getting additional credit.

2. My credit score skyrocketed from the mid 600’s to the mid 700’s. The next step was to apply for new credit. I started getting a lot of pre-screened offers in the mail. These are usually the best to apply for because these offers only come because the companies involved have already looked at your credit. So I applied for and was granted several new cards, often with 0% interest rates for 12-18 months.

3. The next thing to do is to reallocate. It turns out if you have an old card from Bank of America with a $10,000 credit limit and a new card with a $1,000 credit limit, you can combine them and take advantage of the one with the better interest rate. So suddenly, you instead of a 0% credit card with a $1,000 limit, you have one with a $11,000 limit. Bank of America and Chase is an easy phone call to do this. American Express lets you do it online. Citibank apparently sometimes gives you some guff but usually if you call a couple times they will let you do this.

4. The next step requires really good credit – which you now have. Your credit ratios look good on paper if you maintained the 50/90 rule in step 1. So now, assume you have the discipline to do it, is to rinse and repeat steps 3 & 4. You will continue to get new offers if your credit is good and by applying for the preapproved offers and reallocating, you suddenly can get very large lines of credit. In addition, many credit cards will give you between $150 and $250 (sometimes even more) just for applying. By combining credit lines, you suddenly will have cards with lines of credit between $25,000-$50,000. If you do a 0%/18 month offer one one or more of these cards you can earn thousands of dollars in interest income by just putting the money in a high yield savings account. (Although in other articles we will discuss better ways to do this without having to pay the taxes associated with interest income.)

So in the end, by following the steps above, you not only repair your damaged credit from high debt levels, but you actually pay off your debt with introductory “promotional” offers from the credit card companies – the same companies that raised your interest rates are paying off your debt! Remember, the above approach takes patience and discipline. You can’t go party once you have your first $50,000 0% credit card!

-Wageslave

Sunday, September 23, 2007

Budgeting Basics

Ok kids, we all want money and we all want to be rich. Already I can hear the whining..."But Rocketshoe, I don't make enough money, I live paycheck to paycheck. I also have too much debt! How can I possibly save any money?!? Ooh there's a sale at mall..." Well, Rocketshoe is here to help.

For some, this may be rote, others may learn something, most will squirm uncomfortably in their seats while reading what needs to be done.

Everyone should have a monthly budget. A budget allows you to plan for the future, understand your financial boundaries, and pay down debt (Some will be surprised how much they really do make or how little--which will lead to hunting for a way to subsidize your income). Although writing a budget and sticking to it at first can be painful, it is very liberating and can give you a sense of security since you have a handle on it (much like working out at the gym, but without all the sweating--but that may depend on how much debt you have).

First and foremost--Pay yourself First. Contribute to your 401(k) (stay tuned for 401(k) and compound interest discussions). Its a free tax break. At least contribute as much to gain all matching from your employer. If you never see it in your checking account, you won't get to spend it. Talk to your HR rep at work to set this up.

Second, start with your take home pay on the top line and write down your monthly bills--rent, utilities, car payment, student loan, etc. If you come up with a negative number, you need to cut expenses. A generally accepted break down is as follows:

Housing: 30%
Utilities: 10%
Food: 15%
Transportation: 10%
Clothing: 5%
Debt Repayment: 10%
Entertainment:5%
Insurance: 5%
Savings: 10%

Of course this is only a suggestion and it is elastic. If you are not hitting 30% of rent, add the leftovers to another topic. If you are over in any category, take from another. Also reexamine your situation--do you really need all those extra ringtones and text messaging on your cell phone? Could you stand to bring your lunch to work? Should you be partying it up during the week as well as the weekend? Could you ride your bike more often? Creativity and being honest with yourself are key to balancing your budget.

Out of all the topics above, Debt Repayment and Savings are probably the most important in terms of your financial future. Everyone should strive to have an emergency fund of at least three months of expenses in the event you lose your job or are unable to work. This can take time to build, even if just $100 a paycheck, but when bad things do happen, you will be able to survive without going further into debt. Also, if you can afford more, start saving for that next vacation or big purchase. When you are paying in cash instead of credit, you'll feel much better about it and you won't be building up debt.

Debt repayment is good, very good. Nothing feels better than not owing anyone money. If you have more debt than you can pay off every month, you need to rank order the debt in terms of interest rates (This does not include debt where you do not have the option to pay different amounts, i.e. student loans, car payments, mortgage, unless you are paying more than the monthly payment.). Pay off the debt with the highest interest rates first. For example, if you have a credit card with an interest rate of 15% with a balance and you are making extra payments on your car payment which is at 8%, you are losing money. Why? It does you know good to pay down cheaper debt--you are losing money over the long run. (Note: If you can qualify, and make the payments on time, there is nothing better than a 0% loan, 'Same-as-Cash' option--which will be discussed as well in the future). Pay the higher debt down first!! Yes, and continue to contribute to that emergency fund, but pay down the debt!

Another option to reduce your credit card debt immediately is to consolidate your debt onto one card with a lower interest rate. It might cost about $50 to transfer, but having one bill at one low rate will help a lot. Also, some credit cards offer 0% interest for the first 6-18 months. This gives you valuable time to pay down debt while not incurring more interest. Although I do not recommend it, some folks have been transferring debt for years without paying a lick of interest by jumping from card to card and deal to deal. Check out this little nifty crawler from Kiplinger:
http://www.kiplinger.com/basics/archives/2003/03/credit2.html . It displays whats out there in terms of credit card deals. Also, please, please read the fine print on credit cards with respect to annual fees...you should never have to pay an annual fee for any credit card--you can be charged up to $90/month for frequent flyer miles!!!

Back to reducing spending--check out one of Wageslave's favorite places to hang out -- Fat Wallet.com (http://www.fatwallet.com/) . This forum has dozens of deals and techniques to lower your cell phone bill, find deals, and internet coupon codes. Not a bad place to save a buck or two.

Sticking to a budget can be very difficult if you are used to spending everything. Another approach that some folks use that I know works is to have two checking accounts. Your paycheck sends two amounts to two different accounts. One account you pay your bills out of (ideally, you would not have an ATM card to this account) and the other with your fun money in that has an ATM card. This way you are pretty much doing what you did before, but you spend less. Can be a little more time consuming to set-up, but it does work.

Another way to reduce spending is to not go out every night on the weekend. Spend an evening inside and develop a new hobby --like maybe a financial blog--or work on a business, or work a bit harder on your homework. Not only will you save money, but you may even be ahead of life when Monday rolls back around.

Finally, don't feel so bad about your financial situation. We all make bad choices and as Americans, we are not educated in our public schools on how to manage our finances. We work and live in an economy that is dependent on our spending, and everyday we are attacked on all sides by advertising that wants us to spend more and keep up with the Jones. Take hold of your financial future and get out of debt and/or save more money. You might be surprised how much you are spending at Starbucks. One last thing, the average American has about $8,000 sitting on credit cards. Damn.

Stay tuned for an article on what you can do with that extra money.


-Rocketshoe









Wageslave Speaks

We are the new rich. Or will be soon. We still want to change the world, but also want to not have to work. The key thing is we are at a point in our life where we have the choice of becoming wage slaves and working for companies all of our life or figure the system out and have companies work for us the rest of our lives.

Philip Dick once wrote a short story which became a movie entitled the same: Paycheck-where in a future world, ruled by corporations and governments, where individual rights scarcely exist. Many people today live in that world. They are bound to their jobs and don’t have the freedom to figure out what they want or even begin to think about how to get there.

This blog is about combining individual stories to create a base of knowledge in order to figure out how to not be one of those people. I felt myself falling into that world. I worked for a small company. We were a bunch of bright kids and we felt like we could take over the world. The only thing we had to do was help our boss accomplish his goal first. And so many of us worked a lot; often between 60 and 80 hours a week. Our boss promised us a lush future compensation in stock options. The funny thing was for every year we were there, the date those options were to be worth something was always one more year away. (When I started we were one year away, the next year we were two years away and so on.).

Something was wrong.

I was a wage slave. I needed to work, because they didn’t pay me enough to save enough to take much time off. I wasn’t working on my own dreams but someone else’s. In fact, the job was so consuming that I didn’t even get a chance to think about my own dreams. But I decided to make a change. I quit, did a little job hopping, started a little side-business or two and suddenly in the course of a year make almost twice what I used to make and work about half as much.

A lot of people say: I don’t care about the money. Honestly, I agree. It wasn’t so much the money but the freedom. While I started to make more money I kept my lifestyle largely the same, paid off my car, and suddenly my overall expenses are significantly lower than when I started. So I don’t need the money. But the freedom is wonderful. The freedom comes from two places. One, I save a bit of money now. So if I don’t want to work – I can stop. Two, I have time to think! I’m not sure what I’ll do with my life when I grow up but at least I can think about it and then have the opportunity to pursue it as well.

Wageslave is a cofounder of RocketStocksBlog.com

-Wageslave

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Welcome to ROCKETSTOCKSBLOG.COM

Welcome to the Inaugural and opening of Rocketstockblogs.com!!!

The content of this blog will vary. While we are not a personal finance blog, we will try to apply the lessons from the world into our own finances and aim to share them as well. Some of the things we will routinely discuss:

  • Getting out of debt – Many of us at some point in our twenties (some of us in our thirties and forties too!) owed someone else a lot of money. There are ways out – even if you are on the edge.
  • Taxes – Saving money on taxes makes a huge difference, particularly for people living in California. This blog will go over some innovative ways save money tax free, own your own money, and help you grow your money while minimizing your tax exposure while still within the laws of the IRS!
  • Planning for Retirement- There are many tax-friendly retirement options available to everyone. By choosing the right account, you can put away up to $42,000/year of pretax money if you meet the requirements
  • Portfolio Management- Diversification, dividends, short-term gains, and long-term gains, etc.
  • Trading– We will provide stock picks of stocks we think are not properly analyzed or covered by Wall Street in order to try to find opportunities in the short term. We will also go over options and how to use options and use the increased volatility in the market lately to make money.
  • Investing – Because the authors of this blog have varied backgrounds and are positioned globally we hope to put our insights together to come up with some good ideas for macroeconomic trends that we can take advantage of.
  • Big Market Picture- Conceptualizing what factors are moving the Market, and understanding the macroeconomic picture is half the battle to being a good investor.

One of the reasons we put this blog together is we’ve been giving people advise at cocktail parties on subjects like when to buy (or not to buy) a house and where the dollar is going but would like a better forum to lay out our case and because these things are often easier to explain when you are not slurrring (and remember!).

We also want to compile all the information and research of our friends and coworkers. Many investment strategies have gone unrecorded for the enrichment of others.

We also invite you to add your comments, rants, opinions, and suggestions. Ideas and research become good ideas and research when they hold up under scrutiny!

We can be reached at Rocketshoe@gmail.com